PDF《East and South East Asian》

Shi Shijun East and South East Asian Financial Integration in the Process of RMB Internationalisation Shi Shijun KAS-Schriftenreihe CHINA No.

103 (ch) Shanghai

2012 Publisher Shanghai Project Office of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung in the PRC Room 1806, Overseas Chinese Mansion No.129, Yan'

an Xi Road, Shanghai

200040 Tel.:

0086 21

6249 8511 Fax:

0086 21

6249 4549 E-mail: shanghai@kas.de Webpage: www.kas.de/china Person responsible: Dr. Peter Hefele, Director KAS Shanghai The content of this publication does not necessarily reflect the opinion or position of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung. 发行: 德国阿登纳基金会上海办公室 地址: 上海市延安西路

129 号华侨大厦

1806 室 邮编:

200040

电话:

0086 21

6249 8511 传真:

0086 21

6249 4549 E-Mail: shanghai@kas.de 主页: www.kas.de/china 主编: 何彼得博士,德国阿登纳基金会上海办公室主任 文章内容仅代表笔者之观点,与阿登纳基金会立场无关.

3 阿登纳基金会研究项目 人民币国际化进程中的东亚金融一体化 石士钧 史龙祥 张帆

2012 年4月4Foreword The Asian financial crisis of 1997, which severly hit most of the countries in East and South East Asia, and the policy ma- nagement to overcome the crisis, has caused a lot of criti- cism on the established world financial and currency order in the region. Since then and due to these experiences several concepts have been developed towards a greater regional in- tegration of monetary policies and more effective financial stabilization mechanisms. At the same time and as a result of China'

s economic and po- litical rise the still not freely convertible Renminbi (RMB) has made remarkable steps towards becoming a regional (and to a lesser extent global) trade currency and as a possible fu- ture reserve currency. This development is also supported by an increasing influence of the People'

s Republic of China in international organisations like IMF or Worldbank. This development will probably continue and even speed up due to the current fiscal and economic crisis in the Euro zone and the weakness of the US Dollar. The study of Professor Shi Shijun, Shanghai Institute of For- eign Trade (SIFT), provides a concise overview on concepts of a closer regional financial integration in East Asia against the backdrop of the strategic goal of establishing the Ren- minbi as an international currency. It gives useful advice to political decision makers and experts in finance and banking on a possible reshaping of the financial and monetary land- scape of East and South East Asia. The insights given by this study are as well of high impor- tance for the City of Shanghai, which proclaims to be an in- ternational financial hub by 2020. The study is funded by the German Ministry of Economic Co- operation (BMZ). The content of this publication does not ne- cessarily reflect the opinion or position of the Konrad-Ade- nauer-Stiftung. Dr. Peter Hefele, Director KAS Shanghai

5 Content Executive Summary

12 1. Literature Review

18 1.1 Research on the internationalisation of sovereign currencies

18 1.1.1 Preconditions for the internationalisation of currencies

18 1.1.2 Comparative studies of the internationalisa- tion of sovereign currencies

20 1.2 Research on the constraints for and the path to- wards the internationalisation of the Renminbi

24 1.2.1 Constraints of the current system

24 1.2.2 Research on the direction of RMB internation- alisation

25 1.2.3 The RMB as a trade and settlement currency

26 2. Perspectives on the internationalisation of the RMB

27 2.1 Urgency of the RMB internationalisation

27 2.2 Common understanding of the RMB internationali- sation

29 2.3 The interaction between financial integration in East Asia and RMB internationalisation

32 3. Ideas on the financial integration in East and South East Asia

34 3.1 Analysis of the economic interests behind the fi- nancial and monetary integration in East Asia

34 3.2 Review of visions for the financial integration in East and South East Asia

40 6 3.2.1 Ideas on building a regional financial crisis management system

40 3.2.2 Thoughts on establishing a regional currency settlement system in East Asia

41 3.2.3 The idea of creating an area of fixed ex- change rates in East Asia

43 3.3 Practical implementation of financial integration in East Asia and its obstacles

46 3.3.1 The course of the practice of financial integra- tion in East Asia

46 3.3.2 Obstacles and problems of financial integra- tion in East Asia

52 4. Research on the RMB as a settlement currency

53 4.1 Economic analyses of currency internationalisa- tion

53 4.1.1 Internationalisation based on monetary func- tions

53 4.1.2 Internationalisation based on market demand

55 4.2 A possible breakthrough in the internationalisa- tion of the RMB

55 4.2.1 Major systemic restraints of RMB internation- alisation

55 4.2.2 Actual path towards RMB internationalisation

56 4.2.3 Internationalisation in order to establish the RMB as a settlement currency

58 4.3. Analysis of the feasibility of the establishment of the RMB as a settlement currency

58 4.3.1 Factors promoting the RMB as an interna- tional settlement currency

58 4.3.2 The current basis for the establishment

59 4.3.3 The macroeconomic risks of the establishing the RMB as an international settlement currency

60 7 4.4 Conclusions

61 5. Policy recommendations

62 5.1. On setting up the RMB as an international cur- rency

62 5.2 On the interrelation between RMB internationali- sation and financial integration in East and South East Asia

64 5.2.1 RMB internationalisation and escaping the Dollar trap in East and South East Asia

64 5.2.2 RMB internationalisation and a direct currency exchange network in East and South East Asia

66 5.2.3 RMB internationalisation and setting up a re- gional financial market in East and South East Asia

67 5.2.4 RMB internationalisation and exchange rate regulation mechanisms in East and South East Asia

68 5.3 How to strengthen the role of the RMB as an in- ternational settlement currency

69 5.3.1 Struggling to overcome obstacles for the es- tablishment as a settlement currency

69 5.3.2 Facing the possible negative consequences of establishing the RMB as an international settlement currency

70 5.3.3 Promoting relevant measures

71 8

9 Content Executive Summary

11 1. 相关研究文献综述

17 1.1. 主权货币国际化的研究.17 1.1.1. 关于主权货币国际化的条件

17 1.1.2. 主要货币国际化的经验比较

19 1.2. 人民币国际化制度约束及路径研究.23 1.2.1. 关于现有制度条件的约束

23 1.2.2. 人民币国际化路径研究.24 1.2.3. 人民币作为贸易计价及结算货币.25 2. 人民币国际化相关思路.26 2.1. 人民币国际化的紧迫性.26 2.2. 人民币国际化的基本认识

28 2.3. 与东亚金融一体化互动的重要性.31 3. 东亚金融一体化相关思路.33 3.1. 东亚货币金融一体化的经济动因分析

33 3.2. 东亚金融一体化诸多构想述评

39 3.2.1. 建立地区金融危机救助机制的构想

39 3.2.2. 关于建立东亚地区国际结算体系构想

40 3.2.3. 关于建立东亚固定汇率区的构想.42 3.3. 东亚金融一体化的具体实践及其问题

45 3.3.1. 东亚金融一体化的实践历程

45 3.3.2. 东亚金融一体化存在的问题与障碍

51 4. 作为结算货币的人民币研究

52 10 4.1. 货币国际化的经济学分析.52 4.1.1. 基于货币职能的货币国际化.52 4.1.2. 基于市场需求的货币国际化.54 4.2. 人民币国际化的突破口

54 4.2.1. 人民币国际化的主要制度约束

54 4.2.2. 人民币国际化的具体路径.55 4.2.3. 作为结算货币的国际化路径.57 4.3. 人民币作为结算货币的可行性分析

57 4.3.1. 推动人民币成为国际结算货币的因素.57 4.3.2. 人民币成为国际结算货币的现实基础.58 4.3.3. 人民币成为国际结算货币的宏观经济风险

59 4.4. 研究结论60 5. 对策思路与政策主张

61 5.1. 关于人民币国际化的自身建设

61 5.2. 关于人民币国际化与东亚金融一体化的互动

63 5.2.1. 人民币国际化与摆脱东亚 美元陷阱

63 5.2.2. 人民币国际化与东亚双边本币互换网络.65 5.2.3. 人民币国际化与东亚区域金融市场建设.66 5.2.4. 人民币国际化与东亚汇率协调机制

67 5.3. 关于强化人民币国际结算功能

68 5.3.1. 努力跨越人民币国际结算所面临的障碍.68 5.3.2. 高度正视人民币国际结算的可能后果.69 5.3.3. 推动人民币国际结算的相关措施

70 11 Executive Summary East and South East Asian Finan- cial Integration in the Process of RMB Internationalisation The financial integration of East Asia must be promoted mutually with the internationalization of the RMB. In order to achieve these ob- jectives, mechanisms concerning the topics of cooperation, relief, settlement, reserve and integra- tion have to be implemented by the relevant countries. However, the countries must also compre- hend three challenges connected with the internalization of the RMB: valuation, opening capital ac- counts and settlement. I. Triggered by the South-East-Asian financial crisis in

1997 and against the background of the global trend of regional integration, the process of financial and monetary integration in East-Asia started in the late 1990s and has progressed ever since. The eruption of the global financial crisis in

2008 prompted China to speed up the internationalization process of the RMB. This research report ana- lyzes the economic motives of the East-Asian financial integration, dis- cusses initiatives and plans of this process, recalls the history of the in- tegration, and finally discusses the synergic effects between the RMB internationalization and East Asian monetary integration. Part one focuses on the eco- nomic motives of the East-Asian financial integration. The South- East-Asian financial crisis in

1997 triggered the process of East Asian financial integration. This kind of triggering effect can be summarized into the following aspects: 1. Trying to end the dependency on the IMF, its crisis rescuing and fluidity aid because it featured several drawbacks: Firstly, the aid from the IMF came too late. Sec- ondly, the conditions attached were too difficult to accept. Thirdly, the scale of the loans from the IMF was very ........