PDF《2016年国内外油气行业发展概述及 2017年展望》

22 INTERNATIONAL PETROLEUM ECONOMICS 国际石油经济 Vol.

25, No.01

2017 摘要:2016年,全球经济持续复苏,主要经济体走势分化;

全球能源消费结构转型加快;

国际油价触底反 弹;

欧佩克与部分非欧佩克产油国达成联合减产协议;

世界天然气市场供需宽松;

全球工程技术服务市场规模进一 步萎缩;

世界炼油能力缓慢增长,乙烯新增产能大幅减少;

全球成品油供需持续宽松;

油气公司经营业绩继续下 滑;

油气招标总体遇冷,并购市场继续低迷;

油气合作经营风险上升.中国能源结构进一步优化;

石油消费增速大 幅放缓;

天然气供需总体宽松;

市场化改革加快推进;

国内原油产量跌破2亿吨,天然气产量增速继续放缓;

炼油 能力略有增加,地炼市场份额大增;

三大石油公司生产指标小幅下降;

海外油气权益产量稳中有增,民营企业和地 方国企 走出去 取得新成效;

中国陆续发布能源领域 十三五 发展规划;

市场化改革的方向和路径更加明晰. 2017年,国际油价将实质性回升;

全球天然气供需宽松加剧;

世界炼油和乙烯能力将继续增长.中国三大油品供应 过剩加剧;

中国天然气市场总体宽松,国家有望全面放开非居民用气价格;

炼油过剩形势更加严峻;

油气行业市场 化改革将全面深入推进. 关键词:油气行业;

供需;

价格;

地缘政治;

公司经营;

政策;

改革 Abstract:In 2016, world economy continued to recover and major economies differentiated in their trends;

transformation of global energy mix accelerated;

international oil price already bottomed out;

OPEC and some non-OPEC producers agreed to cut production jointly;

world gas market remained sluggish with ease supply and demand;

global engineering technology service market shrunk significantly;

global refining capacity grew slowly, the additional ethylene production capacity declined sharply;

global oil products were still in a loose market;

oil and gas companies suffered from continuously-sliding business performance;

oil and gas bidding was trapped in a clod stage, M&

A market still stayed at depression;

oil and gas cooperation faced worse security situations and higher business risks. China saw slow but steady economic growth and a further optimized energy mix;

oil consumption growth slowed down sharply;

natural gas was generally in excess supply;

market-oriented reform was accelerated;

domestic crude oil production fell sharply to a level below

200 million tons, and gas production growth continued to slow down;

the refining capacity was enhanced slightly, the market share of local refineries increased significantly;

three NOCs slightly decline in production indicators;

overseas equity oil and gas production grew steadily, private enterprises and local state-owned enterprises made new progress in going out ;

the development programs of the energy sector for the 13th Five-year Plan were successively released;

a clearer direction and course for market-oriented reform was charted. In 2017, international oil prices will rise substantially;

global gas supply and demand will be significantly relaxed;

global oil refining and ethylene capacity will grow continuously. The oversupply in gasoline, diesel and kerosene will be intensified;

China'

s natural gas will be generally in ample supply, the government is expected to fully liberalize non-residential gas prices;