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6 中外运输Equity Research Equity Research Report 证券研究报告 Company Report 股票研究公司报告证券研究报告[Tab le_I nfo1 ] 基建行业Infrastructure Sector [Table _Info 2] 中国铁建China Railway Construction (01186 HK) [Table_Title] Company Report: China Railway Construction (01186 HK) Gary Wong 黄家玮 (852)

2509 2616 公司报告:中国铁建 (01186 HK) 中文版 Chinese version gary.

wong@gtjas.com.hk

27 May

2019 [Table_Summary] 1Q2019 Results Positively Surprised, Maintain Buy 2019年1季度业绩超预期,维持 买入 ? China Railway Construction'

s (01186 HK) 1Q2019 revenue increased by 19.3% YoY to RMB157.1 billion. Shareholders'

net profit increased 13.6% YoY to RMB3.9 billion. Results slightly exceeded expectation. Overall gross margin was up 0.1 ppts YoY to 10.0%. In 1Q2019, the Company signed RMB297.4 billion in new contracts, up 6.3% YoY. ? We expect construction revenue to increase at a CAGR of 9.0% in 2018-2021 and expect overall gross margin to increase marginally from 9.7% in

2019 to 9.9% in 2021. In addition, we expect the Company'

s net gearing to decline from 17.5% as at end of

2018 to 6.1% as at end of

2021 due to improving operating cash inflow. ? Our EPS estimates for 2019/ 2020/

2021 are RMB1.503, RMB1.730 and RMB1.901, respectively. We think the current valuation is low compared with its growing prospects. We maintain the TP at HK$13.50, representing 7.9x/ 6.8x/ 6.2x 2019/ 2020/

2021 PER and 3.5x

2019 EV/EBITDA. Maintain Buy . ? 中国铁建(01186 HK)2019 年1季度收入同比上升 19.3%至1,571 亿元(人民币,下同). 股东净利同比增 13.6%至39 亿元.业绩略超预期.公司整体毛利率同比提高 0.1 个百分 点至 10.0%.公司

2019 年1季度新签合同额达 2,974 亿元,同比上升 6.3%. ? 我们预计

2018 -

20121 年基建收入将以 9.0%的复合年增长率增长,预计整体毛利率将会 从2019 年的 9.7%略微增加至

2021 年的 9.9%.此外,我们预计公司的净负债率将会由 于经营现金流入的改善,而从截至

2018 年底的 17.5%下降到

2021 年底的 6.1%. ? 我们对于 2019/ 2020/

2021 年的每股盈利预测分别为 1.503 元、1.730 元及 1.901 元.我 们认为目前的估值相对其增长前景属偏低. 我们维持其 13.50 港元的目标价, 对应 7.9/ 6.8 /6.2 倍2019/ 2020/

2021 年市盈率及 3.5 倍的

2019 年EV/EBITDA 值. 维持 买入 评级. [Table_Rank] Rating: Buy Maintained 评级: 买入 (维持) [Table_Price] 6-18m TP 目标价: HK$13.50 Revised from 原目标价: HK$13.50 Share price 股价: HK$9.040 Stock performance 股价表现 [Table_QuotePic] [Table_PriceChange] Change in Share Price 股价变动

1 M

1 个月

3 M

3 个月

1 Y

1 年Abs. % 绝对变动 % (2.4) (19.4) (1.0) Rel. % to HS Index 相对恒指变动 % 6.0 (14.2) 10.2 Avg. Share price(HK$) 平均股价(港元) 9.3 10.2 9.8 Source: Bloomberg, Guotai Junan International. [Table_ Profit] Year End Turnover Net Profit EPS EPS PER BPS PBR DPS Yield ROE 年结 收入 股东净利 每股净利 每股净利变动 市盈率 每股净资产 市净率 每股股息 股息率 净资产收益率 12/31 (RMB m) (RMB m) (RMB) (%) (x) (RMB) (x) (RMB) 2017A 680,981 16,057 1.182 14.6 9.5 11.003 1.0 0.180 1.6 11.4 2018A 730,123 17,935 1.321 11.8 9.0 12.511 0.9 0.210 1.8 11.2 2019F 817,915 20,409 1.503 13.8 7.9 14.014 0.8 0.225 1.9 11.3 2020F 889,420 23,487 1.730 15.1 6.9 15.518 0.8 0.259 2.2 11.7 2021F 957,182 25,808 1.901 9.9 6.2 17.159 0.7 0.285 2.4 11.6 [Table_BaseData] Shares in issue (m) 总股数 (m) 13,579.5 Major shareholder 大股东 CRCG 55.7% Market cap. (HK$ m) 市值 (HK$ m) 183,323.3 Free float (%) 自由流通比率(%) 44.3