PDF《内容摘要》

II 内容摘要建国以来,我国共修建 8.

6 万座堤坝,这些工程在国民经济中产生了巨大的社 会经济效益.由于多种原因,部分大坝存在安全问题,直接影响工程效益的发挥. 大坝安全监测、分析与预报是大坝安全管理中涉及多学科交叉和高科技发展的重 要课题,大坝变形分析研究是判断大坝能否安全运行的重要依据. 本文阐述了重力坝安全监测的意义、目的以及重力坝变形分析的发展和现状;

重力坝安全监测中模型研究的基本原理和方法,并结合万家寨工程对现有模型的 优缺点进行了分析比较. 针对重力坝变形呈周期性的特点,采用医学上用于分析周期性数据的圆形分 布对重力坝变形峰值出现的时间进行预测,为工程安全运行提供科学依据;

结合 万家寨变形监测资料,论证了圆形分布的适用性. 具体内容如下: 1) 论述了重力坝安全监测的目的和意义, 阐述重力坝变形分析的发展和现状. 2) 运用多元逐步回归,建立重力坝变形传统统计模型. 3) 结合有限元理论,建立重力坝变形确定性模型. 4) 利用有限元原理建立重力坝变形混合模型. 5) 圆形分布原理. 6) 依托万家寨监测资料,对三种模型以及圆形分布进行实际分析应用. 关键词:大坝安全监测 统计模型 确定性模型 混合模型 有限元 圆形分布 III Abstract Since founding the nation, there are about 8.6 ten thousand dikes set up in China. which have had the huge social economy benefit in the national economy. Because the many kinds of reasons, the partial dams existence security problem, which directly affects the project benefit to display. The safe monitor, the analysis and the forecast in the dam safety control involves multi-disciplinary overlapping and the high tech development, the dam distortion analysis and research is the important basis to judge the dam safe operation. This article elaborated the dam safe monitor significance, the goal as well as the dam distortion analysis development and the present situation;

The basic principle and the method of the model research in dam safely monitors is displayed, and the existing model good and bad points is compared though the Wan Jiazhai dam. Assumes the periodic date of gravity dam distortion, this article uses the circular distribution analyzing the periodic data in the medicine to forecasts the time of the peak value of the gravity dam distortion, which provides the scientific basis for the project safe operation;

unifies the monitoring data in Wanjiazhai to proven the circular distributed serviceability. The content is as followed: 1) To elaborate the dam safe monitor goal and the significance, the dam distortion analysis development and the present situation. 2) To utilize generalized linear polynomial stepwise regression, establish tradition statistical model of the gravity dam distortion. 3) To unify the finite element theory, establish determinacy model for the gravity dam. 4) To based on finite element principle, establish gravity dam distortion mix model. 5) To elaborate the principle of circular distribution. 6) To depend on monitoring material in Wan Jiazhai dam, carry on the actual analysis application to three kind of models and circular distribution. Key words: dam safety monitoring statistical model determinacy model mix model finite element method circular distribution

1 引言大坝作为水利工程最主要的建筑物,其安全、稳定、正常的运行将直接影响 到水利工程效益的发挥.我国现有各类水库