PDF《2018 年全球水电发展现状与开发潜力分析》

水利水电科技进展,2019,39(3)摇Tel:025 83786335摇 E鄄mail:jz@ hhu.

edu. cn摇http:/ / jour. hhu. edu. cn 第39 卷第

3 期Vol.

39 No.

3 水利水电科技进展Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

2019 年5月May

2019 基金项目:中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室开放研究基金(IWHR鄄SKL鄄201717) 作者简介:周兴波(1988―),男,博士,主要从事国际能源合作、大坝安全管理、溃坝风险分析研究. E鄄mail: zhou_xingbo@ 126. com DOI:10.

3880 / j. issn.

1006 7647. 2019. 03.

004 2018 年全球水电发展现状与开发潜力分析 周兴波,杜效鹄 (水电水利规划设计总院,北京摇 100120) 摘要:为全面了解全球水电发展现状,分析各国水电市场开发潜力,指导水电企业开拓国际市场,将 全球划分为北美洲、南美洲、非洲、欧洲、中亚和南亚、东亚及环太平洋地区六大区域,阐述全球各区 域水电发展现状,以及重点国家水电开发情况和发展目标,结合各国水力资源和开发情况,分析全 球水电市场开发潜力. 结果表明:全球水电总装机容量总体持续增加,但年度增量呈下降趋势;

非洲、南亚及东南亚地区未来水电开发潜力较大,就技术层面分析,印度尼西亚、秘鲁、刚果(金)、塔 吉克斯坦、尼泊尔、安哥拉、缅甸、玻利维亚等国未来水电市场前景广阔. 关键词:水力资源;

全球水电;

发展现状;

开发潜力 中图分类号:TV213;

TV753摇摇摇文献标志码:A摇摇摇文章编号:1006 7647(2019)03

0018 06 Development status and potential analysis of global hydropower in

2018 / / ZHOU Xingbo, DU Xiaohu ( China Renewable Energy Engineering Institute, Beijing 100120, China) Abstract: In order to comprehensively understand the current status of global hydropower development, to analyze the development potential of hydropower markets in various countries, and to guide hydropower enterprises to explore the international market, the world is divided into six regions, including North America, South America, Africa, Europe, Central and South Asia, East Asia and the Pacific Rim. The current status of hydropower development in various regions of the world, as well as the corresponding status and development goals in key countries are elaborated. Based on the water resources and the development situation, the exploring potential of the global hydropower market is analyzed. The results show that the total installed capacity of hydropower in the world continues to increase but the annual increment shows a downward trend. The hydropower development potential in Africa, South Asia and Southeast Asia is relatively large. In terms of technology development, the countries such as Indonesia, Peru, DR Congo, Tajikistan, Nepal, Angola, Myanmar and Bolivia, etc. , have broad prospects for future hydropower markets. Key words: hydroelectric resources;

global hydropower;

development status;

development potential 摇摇水能是一种既经济又清洁的可再生能源. 在当 前条件下,水力发电具有技术成熟、开发经济、调度 灵活、清洁低碳、安全可靠等优点,并可兼顾灌溉、防洪、航运等社会效益,世界各国均将水力发电作为能 源发展与基础设施建设的优先选择.

2017 年,全球 水力发电量占总发电量的 16% ,占全球可再生能源 发电量的 62% ,超过风能、太阳能、生物质能、海洋 能及地热能等其他可再生能源发电总量的