PDF《一种新型油气产量预测模型》

2018 年10 月第37 卷第

5 期 大庆石油地质与开发 Petroleum Geology and Oilfield Development in Daqing Oct.

,2018 Vol.

37 No.

5 收稿日期: 2017- 11-

18 改回日期: 2017- 12-

20 基金项目: 中国石油大学科学基金项目 ( 2462014YJRC015) 资助. 作者简介: 周芸,女,1993 生,硕士研究生,从事油气田开发方面研究.E- mail: zhouy_rsc_cup@ 163. com 网络出版地址: http: / /kns. cnki. net/kcms/detail/23. 1286. te. 20180427. 0914. 001. html 网络出版时间:

2018 -

04 - 27T09: 14:

24 DOI: 10.

19597 /J. ISSN. 1000- 3754.

201711011 一种新型油气产量预测模型 周芸1周福建

1 冯连勇

2 ( 1. 中国石油大学非常规天然气研究院,北京 102249;

2. 中国石油大学工商管理学院,北京 102249) 摘要: 高效预测油气田产量走势一直是石油领域一项重要研究,精准预测油气田动态产量是合理制定油田规划方 案、实现高效管理和开发的关键步骤.为了确保方案的科学性及合理提高产量预测的精确度,根据油气开采过 程中产量动态变化规律,选取了 Hubbert 预测和广义翁氏预测

2 种常规数学模型,在最优化理论的基础上全方位 考虑了其特征性,建立了以广义翁氏模型和 Hubbert 模型为基础的新型油气产量预测的最优化模型.通过对某油 田往年生产数据拟合分析表明: 该最优化模型不仅保持了广义翁氏模型的优势,而且弥补了 Hubbert 预测模型的 缺点;

利用最优化数学方法将

2 种模型有效结合,预测结果较为精准,适用于油气田产量预测. 关键词: 油气产量预测;

动态拟合;

广义翁氏模型;

Hubbert 模型;

最优化模型 中图分类号: TE328 文献标识码: A 文章编号: 1000-

3754 ( 2018) 05- 0076-

05 A NEW MODEL FOR PREDICTING OIL ANG GAS PRODUCTION ZHOU Yun1 ,ZHOU Fujian1 ,FENG Lianyong2 ( 1. Unconventional Natural Gas Institute,China University of Petroleum,Beijing 102249,China;

2. School of Business and Administration,China University of Petroleum,Beijing 102249,China) Abstract: High- efficiency prediction of the oil and gas production trend has been an important research in the field of the oil,and accurate prediction of the dynamic production of oil and gas fields is the key step to reasonably com- pile the oilfield planning program,realize the high- efficiency management and of development. In order to ensure the scientific nature of the program and enhance the accuracy of the production prediction to a certain reasonable degree,according to the dynamic change laws of the oil and gas production,two kinds of the conventional mathe- matical model i. e. Hubbert production predicting model and the generalized Weng'

s predicting model were cho- sen,on the basis of the optimization theory,all- round considered the characteristics and established the optimized new model to predict the oil and gas production based on the two models stated above. The matching analysis of the previous years'

data of an oilfield shows that the optimal model not only preserves the advantages of the generalized Weng'

s model,but also to make up the shortcomings of Hubbert predicting model;

with the help of the mathemati- cal optimization approach,two models are effectively matched,the predicted results are much more precise,so all the achievements are suitable for the oil and gas field production prediction. Key words: oil and gas production prediction;

dynamic match;

generalized Weng'

s model;