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7 中外运输Equity Research Equity Research Report 证券研究报告Company Report 股票研究公司报告证券研究报告[Tab le_I nfo1 ] 电力设备行业Electric Equipment Sector [Tab le_I nfo2 ] 上海电气Shanghai Electric (02727 HK) [Table_Title] Company Report: Shanghai Electric (02727 HK) 中文版 Jun Zhu 朱俊杰 (852)

2509 7592 公司报告:上海电气 (02727 HK) Chinese version junjie.

zhu@gtjas.com.hk

11 April

2019 [Table_Summary] Growth Driven By Transformation and Reform, Reiterate Buy 由转型和改革所推动的增长,重申 买入 ?

2018 earnings went up YoY by 13.5%, in line with expectation. Sales and net profit in

2018 went up YoY by 27.2% and 13.5%, respectively. Operating results in

2018 were in line with the market and our expectation. Gross margin in

2018 went down YoY by 1.7 ppt to 18.2%, mainly due to gross margin decline in

3 out of

4 business segments. Net margin in

2018 was down slightly by 0.4 ppt YoY to 2.9%. ? New orders in

2018 went up sharply by 30.1% YoY. New orders went up significantly by 30.1% YoY in

2018 to RMB 130.71 bn, implying that newly signed orders in the 4th quarter of

2018 jumped significantly by 66.3% YoY and reached RMB 40.41 bn. Orders on hand amounted to RMB 206.99 bn (with orders of RMB 86.21 bn not yet coming into effect) by the end of the reporting period, down YoY by 8.8%. ? We expect newly installed power capacity in China to be approximately

118 GW in 2019, down YoY by 5.1%. In which, thermal, hydro, nuclear, wind and solar are expected to contribute 35GW, 10GW, 8GW, 25GW and 40GW, respectively, of new power capacity additions in 2019. Non-hydro renewable energy installation is expected to be between 70GW and 80GW per year from

2019 to 2020. ? We reiterate the Buy rating and raise the TP to HK$ 3.80. We remain confident on the outlook of Shanghai Electric given its continued reform and transformation. Our TP corresponds to 15.0x/ 12.7x/ 11.7x FY19-FY21 PER or 0.8x/ 0.8x/ 0.8x FY19-FY21 PBR. ?

2018 年盈利同比增长 13.5%,符合预期.2018 年的销售和净利润分别同比增长 27.2%和13.5%.2018 年的业绩符合市场和我们的预期.2018 年毛利率同比下降 1.7 个百分点至 18.2%,主要是由于

4 个业务板块中有

3 个板块的毛利率在期内出现下滑.2018 年净利润 率同比微降 0.4 个百分点至 2.9%. ?

2018 年新签订单同比大增 30.1%.2018 年新增订单同比上升 30.1%至1,307.1 亿元人民 币,意味着

2018 年第

4 季度的新签订单量同比增长了 66.3%并达到 404.1 亿元人民币. 截至报告期末, 在手订单总额为 2,069.9 亿元人民币(其中 862.1 亿元人民币尚未生效), 同 比下降 8.8%. ? 我们预计国内于

2019 年的新增发电装机容量约为

118 吉瓦, 同比下降 5.1%. 其中, 火电、 水电、核电、风电和太阳能预计将分别在

2019 年新增

35 吉瓦、10 吉瓦、8 吉瓦、25 吉 瓦和

40 吉瓦的新增电力容量.在2019 和2020 年间,非水电可再生能源的新增装机容量 预计每年将在

70 吉瓦到

80 吉瓦之间. ? 我们重申 买入 的投资评级, 并上调目标价至 3.80 港元. 鉴于上海电气的持续改革和转型, 我们对上海电气的前景充满信心.我们的目标价相当于 15.0 倍/12.7 倍/11.7 倍的

2019 年-2021 年市盈率或 0.8 倍/0.8 倍/0.8 倍的

2019 年-2021 年的市净率. [Table_Rank] Rating: Buy Maintained 评级: 买入 (维持) [Table_Price] 6-18m TP 目标价: HK$3.80 Revised from 原目标价: HK$3.63 Share price 股价: HK$3.110 Stock performance 股价表现 [Table_QuotePic] [Table_PriceChange] Change in Share Price 股价变动