PDF《复杂载荷下深水顶张式立管屈曲失效风险分析》

第51 卷第6期2018 年6月天津大学学报(自然科学与工程技术版) Journal of Tianjin University(Science and Technology) Vol.

51 No.

6 Jun.

2018 收稿日期:2017-04-06;

修回日期:2017-09-07. 作者简介:郝帅(1990― ),男,博士研究生,harrison@tju.edu.cn. 通讯作者:余杨,yang.yu@tju.edu.cn. 基金项目:国家工信部高技术船舶科研资助项目(CCL2016SZGF0003);

国家自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(51609169);

国家重点 基础研究发展计划(973 计划)资助项目(2014CB046804). Supported by the National MIIT High-Tech Ship Research Project(No.,CCL2016SZGF0003),the National Natural Science Foundation of China for Youth(No.,51609169)and the National Basic Research Program of China(No.,2014CB046804). DOI:10.11784/tdxbz201704016 复杂载荷下深水顶张式立管屈曲失效风险分析 郝帅1,

2 ,余杨1,

2 ,吴雷3,余建星 1,

2 ,张宁3(1. 天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津 300350;

2. 高新船舶与深海开发装备协同创新中心,上海 200240;

3. 中海石油深海开发有限公司,深圳 518000) 摘要:研究了深水顶张式立管在极端环境载荷、第三方破坏载荷以及材料腐蚀等多种复杂载荷条件下立管的结构 屈曲失效风险,并考虑海洋立管风险分析中不加以区分的立管类型与失效形式,采用新的非基于事故统计的方法探 究其规律,进行风险辨识.为了研究深水顶张式立管的屈曲失效风险,通过复杂载荷条件下结构致灾机理的辨识建 立多立管状态下的故障树模型,采用海洋工程领域中应用较为成熟的专家综合评估法及模糊故障树法进行风险分 析,最终从概率及后果两个维度给出屈曲失效薄弱环节.通过实例分析、计算,验证本文提出方法的适用性和可靠 性,并得出对深海资源开发有参考价值的结论. 关键词:顶张式立管;

复杂载荷;

屈曲失效;

风险分析 中图分类号:TE58 文献标志码:A 文章编号:0493-2137(2018)06-0555-11 Risk Analysis on Buckling Failure of Deepwater TTRs Under Complex Loads Hao Shuai 1,

2 ,Yu Yang 1,

2 ,Wu Lei

3 ,Yu Jianxing 1,

2 ,Zhang Ning

3 (1. State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety,Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350,China;

2.Collaborative Innovation Center for Advanced Ship and Deep-Sea Exploration,Shanghai 200240,China;

3.CNOOC Deepwater Development Ltd.,Shenzhen 518000,China) Abstract:The risk of structural buckling failure of deepwater top tensioned riser(TTR)under various complex load conditions,e. g. extreme environment loads,damage loads from third parties,and material corrosion was re- searched. And it considered riser types and failure types which were not differentiated in marine riser risk analyses. A new method which is not based on engineering accident statistics was used to investigate its failure rules to identify risk. To study the buckling failure risk of deepwater TTRs,a multiple-riser-state fault tree model was constructed by identifying structural failure mechanism under complex loads,and a risk analysis was made using experts compre- hensive evaluation analysis(ECEA)and fuzzy fault tree analysis(FFTA)which are maturely applied in ocean engineer- ing. Eventually,the analysis indicates weak buckling failure modes by considering their probabilities and conse- quences. The usability and reliability of the proposed method are verified by case study and calculation,and then the conclusion is obtained,which can be referenced in deep-sea resource development. Keywords:top tensioned riser(TTR);